The World Cup final pits two of the best teams in the tournament, with Lionel Messi and Argentina taking on Kylian Mbappe and France. Our Argentina vs. France prop bets assume Mbappe will have a significant impact because of the presence of the two superstars that will define the ’22 final.

France is attempting to win their second consecutive World Cup in 2022, but Lionel Messi and Argentina stand in their way. World Cup odds have posted this matchup as a pick’em, indicating that bookmakers recognize the excitement and intrigue of the upcoming championship game.

With so many games to predict in this year’s World Cup, we went hunting for the OKBET Betting Programs best odds on Argentina vs France.


Argentina vs France World Cup props

Argentina vs France World Cup props

Second – half surge

The French are content to sit back, absorb up pressure, and wait for counter-attacking possibilities, therefore they usually perform their best work in the second half of games. As the adversary grows weary and desperate, they become easier targets for the French counterattack’s deadly decisiveness.

In the four tournaments France has participated in since Russia 2018, the Euros, the World Cup, and the Nations League, France has generated and converted much more second-half opportunities than they did in the first. In Qatar, eight of France’s thirteen goals scored within 90 minutes have come in the second half, continuing a trend that began in Europe.

One of the most likely places for a “feeling out” moment to occur is the World Cup final. That was the situation four years ago as well, when both of France’s goals against Croatia came from open play in the second half in a 4-2 victory.

Even though oddsmakers appear to be aware of Les Blues’ second-half power, we are still getting good odds on France scoring in the first half (Yes +150 / No -200) but not in the second (Yes -120 / No -120).

The best of Mbappe

Early on in Qatar, it looked like French forward Kylian Mbappe was going to take this tournament, and the title as the best player in the world, by the horns. But that’s more because of the opponent he faced than any decline in the phenom’s play.

Mbappe faced probably the two fullbacks best able to deal with his game-breaking pace in England’s Kyle Walker and Morocco’s Achraf Hakimi. In those games, Mbappe excelled not when he dropped his shoulder and sped down the wing, as is so frequently the case, but when he drifted into the half-space or sank deeper.

Mbappe’s offensive production dropped basically everywhere because he was not given nearly as much room as he usually gets. Take a look at how his latest two matches stand up against his averages versus Australia, Denmark, and Poland (vs. Tunisia is omitted as he played 28 minutes off the bench).

Attacking Metricvs. AUS, DEN, POLvs. ENG, MAR
Expected goals0.830.35
Expected assists0.40.05
Shots on target2.60.0
Shot-creating actions9.34.5

Against Argentina, Mbappe will be back to his usual dominant self. And whether Rodrigo De Paul or Angel Di Maria starts on the right side of midfield, they’ll have their hands full with Theo Hernandez’s overlapping runs. Nahuel Molina, the Argentine right back, is like 99 percent of defenders on the planet in that he lacks the pace and defensive ability to stick with Mbappe.

After seven-, six-, and five-shot games in his first three appearances, the Over 3.5 at plus-money seems extremely appetizing compared to the Under 2.5 at a less enticing -175 odds. After averaging 2.6 shots on goal over his first three games, I’ll additionally reward him for passing two shots-on-goal milestones: Over 1.5 (+150) and Over 2.5 (+500).

Smooth like a Ferrari

It’s not the French way to play the ball and try to break the other side down; this is a team that’s content to give the ball away and wait for its chance. That was already apparent in this French team without the injured N’Golo Kante and Paul Pogba, but their absence made that fact much more glaring.

France will likely have less possession than Argentina, a squad that is content to play with the ball, just as they did against the high-caliber opponents they encountered in Qatar (51% for Denmark, 57% for England, and 61% for Morocco).

The Argentine team’s midfielder Enzo Fernandez, who together with Alexis Mac Allister has been the team’s major creative hub and a lock for Young Player of the Tournament honors, will be at the center of it all. With 0.41 goals and assists per 90 minutes, Fernandez tops all Argentine midfielders. He also ranks second in passes among midfielders, behind De Paul, who has played about an hour longer (and might be pulled on Sunday).

Ever since Fernandez was inserted into the starting lineup against Poland, he has been Argentina’s go-to man for the job of cycling the ball around the base. Over his first three games, he averaged 88.6 passes per game, but it dropped dramatically (to 48 passes) against Croatia, which was generally predicted given the strength of their midfield trio.

We should expect Fernandez to play a more traditional role against a French squad that will sit back and let Argentina control the tempo of the game.

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